complexity

The guys at Cognitive Edge seem to be on a roll with all the video's they're creating!  The latest one to be released is of Dave Snowden retelling one of the very first (and best) analogies I heard him use to explain the difference between ordered and unordered approaches.

Enjoy!

I am not a good project manager.  There, I said it!  Even 5 years in IBM could not drill the organised thought processes required to manage a big project into me.  I'm just not wired for that.  That being said however, I don't believe that all projects (I won't go so far to say no projects) lend themselves to being managed with structured, deterministic so-called "Waterfall" methodologies that are so popular in most IT companies.  Agile methodologies like SCRUM are much better at catering for the inherent complexities one encounters in a project environment.

In a recent blog entry, Matthew E. May writes about the "7 laws of project management and how to break them", it really is worth a read.  Among other things he writes:

Sonja and I are in Cape Town tomorrow for the Unashamedly Ethical conference on Friday and Saturday. Since the release of the King 3 report on corporate governance earlier this month, there is increased pressure for Board's and Directors to report on and manage the ethical performace of their companies.

Managing ethics?

The reality is that the realm of ethics is a profoundly complex problem, a problem that escapes direct management ... added to this complexity is the problem of human nature i.e. an unethical person is unlikely to admit to being unethical if asked. For organisations to effectively manage and report on ethics performance, a different approach is required – an approach that understands the complex nature of human behaviour, beliefs and values. To this end, we are exploring an offering that adoptis a complexity-based narrative methodology:

Dave Snowden is in the country early in August and will be giving a public talk for the Pretoria chapter of the KM Practitioner Forum at the CSIR on the 19th.  I've attached the invite for your convenience

The topic is "How to make KM strategic to your organisation".  Dave's talks are always challenging and entertaining.

Seats are limited and registrations are coming in quickly, so make sure you register soon to ensure your spot.  I hope to see you there!

Our friends at Kaizania are hosting a SCRUM training course at the end of this month, and for those who don't know, it has nothing to do with rugby!

The 2009 Cognitive Edge Accreditation kicked off in Johannesburg today. We're running the accreditation in conjunction with Cognitive Edge and Steve Bealing (CEO) is here from Singapore running the session.

It's Steve's first visit to South African, and Africa for that fact. He's on a whirlwind learning curve on South African culture and traffic ... 

We'll be live-tweeting the event over the next few days at http://twitter.com/narrativelab. Follow us there for course updates, thoughts and nuggets of wisdom on narrative and complexity.

"Give me a chance to go down today, I'll do it!  I'm desperate to get out of this poverty. I'm not scared to die or get arrested because even the police are involved in this. I don't blame zama-zamas; in fact I'm encouraged by their initiative."

These are the words of a 18 year old jobless hostel resident in Welkom, South Africa.  These words are especially disturbing after  a week where at least 76 illegal miners (zama-zama's or chance-takers) have died in disused shafts of a gold mine.  This man also admitted that illegal mining continues, despite the tragedy and a spate of raids by the police and soldiers, the illegal mining continues. ...

"If you're looking for a role model in a world of complexity, you could do worse than to imitate a bee."

This is the end quote from an engaging National Geographic article on Swarm Theory. As the quote suggests, there's much to learn from the swarming habits of insects in terms of finding novel, effective and efficient solutions to complex problems. The technical term for this process is "self-organisation" and the encouragement is for managers to, in the face of complex problems, implement a self-organising management approach.

In our experience of speaking to leaders and managers about the complex problems they face, and in promoting the concepts of Thrive! Effective Adaption, the last thing managers want to hear about is implementing a laissez-faire management style. Their argument is this: how can I trust my people and organisation to self-organise in the most effective way? They then aslo add in this sentence, barely pausing for a breath, "It's like managing by not-managing!".

In many ways I would agree.

While promoting self-organisation in itself is not helpful nor digestible for managers in today's global economic context, there are components of self-organisation that WILL provide a way to thrive in tomorrow's world (which is probably already here!). There is a caveat we would add though ...

An article in the news today reported concern among AIDS organisations and Doctors without Borders about a worrying new trend where people are neglecting to take life-saving medication in order to qualify for government subsidies.  In South Africa, the government pays a special disability grant to people living with HIV.  The problem seems to be that there is no standard set of guidelines as to determining who qualifies for the subsidy and who doesn't.  Some doctors are basing their recommendations in terms of who qualifies for the subsidy on the CD4 levels of the patients, i.e. to qualify for the subsidy, you need to stay sick or get worse.  If you get better, i.e. your CD4 count improves; you no longer have access to the extra money from government.  People need to re-apply for the subsidy every 6 months, so there seems to be a definite incentive to remain ill.

Although it's difficult for me to understand how someone would risk their life to receive a subsidy, I guess it becomes a moot point when that money is the only means I have to feed my family.  It seems that short-sighted thinking on the part of doctors and government regulators are leading to some serious unintended consequences. 

It reminds me of a story I heard recently while conducting research into the current state of mine health and safety in South Africa ...

This post is largely inspired by a comprehensive blog entry by Dave Snowden on a new approach to Scenario Planning.   Much of what he says is key to the thinking behind our new Thrive! product.

Seneca said: "The greatest loss of time is delay and expectation, which depend upon the future. We let go the present, which we have in our power, and look forward to that which depends upon chance, and so relinquish a certainty for an uncertainty"

In one of her articles Margaret Wheatly writes about the metaphors we use when speaking about dealing with complex problems, most of these relate to attacking the problem, not actually engaging with it.  Most people and organisation seem to have an inherent dislike for complexity and uncertainty, wanting to eliminate or reduce it all costs.  In their efforts, they often cause more risk to their companies. ...